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STA00190 - TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF DATA ON ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT


ABSTRACT

            Although transportation has liberated man and makes him more mobile, his increasing reliance on vehicular movement has conferred great facilities on him and his activities. The greatest culprit of all the modes of transportation is road of which traffic accident is the most disturbing repercussion of its use.

            Road traffic accident is therefore an issue of a great international concern as it has emerged as the single greatest sources of death all over the world. In the developing countries where the number of motor vehicles relating to population is generally much lower than in the developed countries, facilities from automobile crashes are higher.

Secondary data on two modes of accident which are people killed and people injured were collected from federal road safety commission, Osogbo, Osun State recorded for a period of ten years (2008-2017) were analyzed in this study aiming to analyze the trends of the accident mode and to forecast based on the past data. Descriptive statistics and time series analysis were used for the analysis.

            The descriptive statistics table revealed that the mean value for people injured was bigger than the mean of people killed by accident indicating more injuries than death. Time series was later used to analyze the data and it was observed that the data were not stationary at ordinary level which led to differencing the data that eventually showed stationarity in the data. The best ARIMA models were used to make forecast in which the results showed that from 2018 to 2020.

            It is therefore recommended that government should assess the problem, policies and institutional settings relating to road traffic injury and the capacity for road traffic injury prevention in each state, and also the individual should encourage enforcement of traffic safety laws and regulation and campaign for firm and swift punishments for traffic offenders and lastly they should behave responsibly by abiding the speed limit on roads, always wearing a seat belt and properly restraining children even on a short trips..

 

CHAPTER ONE

GENERAL INTRODUCTION

  • INTRDUCTION

            Although transportation has liberated man and makes him more mobile, his increasing reliance on vehicular movement has conferred great facilities on him and his activities. The greatest culprit of all the modes of transportation is road of which traffic accident is the most disturbing repercussion of its use.

Road traffic accident is therefore an issue of a great international concern as it has emerged as the single greatest sources of death all over the world. In the developing countries where the number of motor vehicles relating to population is generally much lower than in the developed countries, facilities from automobile crashes are higher. It has been shown, for instance that accident in developing countries cost almost one percent of these countries Annual Gross National Product utilizing scarce financial resources they can all afford to lose (Akpoghome 1998).

            Nigeria with the total land area of 910,771 square kilometer and human population of about 167million is the most populous in Africa and the 7th most populous nation in the world. Its land mass and burgeoning population correlates with its high level of vehicular population estimated at over 7.6million with a total length of about 194,000 kilometer (comprising 34,120km federal, 30,500km state and 129,580km km of local roads). Nigeria ranked as the country with the largest road network in Africa in 2011. Its population density which varies in rural and urban areas (approximately 51.7% and 48.3% respectively) translates to a population road ratio of 860 persons per squared kilometer indicating intense traffic pressure on the available road network. This pressure contributes to the high road traffic accident in the country (FRSC, 2012).

            The Nigeria situation has reached such an alarming proportion even to the point of sheer frustration and near helplessness. Nigeria continues to feature in the bottom of WHO country ranking of road traffic accidents. The country’s 149th position ranking in 2009 out of 178 member states indicates the hazards associated with road transportation in a country that is largely dependent on its road network for economical, social and physical activities.

Indeed news of road traffic accidents in Nigeria no longer stirs any surprise. What may be shocking, however is the magnitude of the fatality Daily, Nigerian Newspaper carry news of road traffic accident that are considered significant only in severity. Sometimes the paper sum up the number of lives claimed as if they were providing the expenditure account.

According to Sumaila (2001) road traffic accidents have claimed more lives than deaths resulting from all communicable disease together including the dreaded (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome AIDS). Thus the government and people of Nigeria are deeply concerned about the continuing high rate of road accidents and the unnecessary consequential waste of lives and properties. What is worrisome is the fact that road traffic crashes and mortality rate are still high despite various remedial measures taken in recent years to combat the problem.

 

 

1.1       HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY        COMMISSION

             The federal road safety corps (FRSC) was established on feb18th 1988 as paramilitary organization via Decree No. 45 of 1988 as amended by Decree 35 of 1992, referred to in the statutory books as the FRSC act cap 141 laws of the federation of Nigeria (LFN) 1990. This act was amended and passed as FRSC (establishment) act in 2007with the responsibility for the traffic management, preventing and minimizing accidents on the highways, the supervision of users of such highways, the regulation of traffic therein and clearing obstruction on any part of the highways and for educating drivers, motorist and other members of the public generally on the proper use of highways and for other related matters to safety on the highways.

FUNCTIONS OF THE AGENCY

  • Ensuring proper and safe use of roads
  • Removal of obstruction on the highways
  • Rescue of road traffic crash victims
  • Educating drivers, motorists and other member of the public generally on the proper use of highways.
  • Design and production of driving license
  • Design and production of vehicle number plate
  • Determining and enforcement speed limits for all categories of roads and vehicles
  • Preventing or minimizing accidents on the highways
  • Giving prompt attention and care to victims of accident
  • Cooperate with bodies or agencies or groups in road safety activities
  • Providing roadside and mobile clinic for the treatment of accidents victims free of
  • Regulating the use of mobile phones by motorist.

 

 

 

1.2   Aim and Objectives

            The aim of this project is to examine the pattern of the accident cause by road accident in osun state. The objectives are to

  1. Examine the trend of the accident
  2. Propose appropriate time series model for the data
  3. To predict for the next three (3) years using the propose model in (ii)

 

1.3   Data Collection

            The data used are secondary data on the number of casualties on road accident, treated by the Federal Road Safety Commission in Osun state, between the years 2008 to 2017. In this project, the data were subjected to time series analysis.

1.4       Scope of the study

            This project work covers a period of ten years between the year (2008-2017), and time series analysis on the number of casualties occurred monthly within that period of time.